Florida Has the Most Counties at Risk of Falling Home Prices as Foreclosures Rise

Florida may be the state with the biggest risk of falling home prices in 2026, according to a new report.

Counties in Florida accounted for 16 of the 50 riskiest counties vulnerable to price declines, according to an analysis released by property data firm ATTOM on Wednesday. California had 11 counties in the top 50, followed by New Jersey with four.

The report projects county-level risks for falling home prices based on the share of homes facing foreclosure, the portion with seriously underwater mortgages, current affordability at local wages, and local unemployment rates.

“Foreclosure and unemployment rates have been rising year over year," says ATTOM CEO Rob Barber. "Even as foreclosure activity normalizes, markets where prices remain high, foreclosures are rising, and employment is weakening may face greater risk.”

In recent prior quarters, California counties have dominated the top of the list of riskiest housing markets, but the fourth quarter of 2025 saw Florida take over with the most risky markets.

The overall riskiest markets in ATTTOM's analysis were Charlotte County, FL (Punta Gorda), Charles County, MD (Washington, DC), Butte County, CA (Chico), Saint Lucie County, FL (Port St. Lucie), and Atlantic County, NJ (Atlantic City).

ATTOM says the counties at the top of the list were distinguished by particularly high foreclosure and unemployment rates.

Separate projections from the Realtor.com® economics team forecast that home prices will fall in most major Florida metro areas this year.

Across Florida's eight largest metro areas, median sales prices for existing homes and condos are projected to fall an average of 1.9% in 2026, well below the 2.2% positive gain the forecast expects nationally.

Realtor.com senior economist Joel Berner says that Florida's housing market "is enduring a long, slow correction period" after falling severely out of balance during the post-pandemic buying frenzy of 2021 and 2022.

"Prices are moving back toward a long-run equilibrium as higher mortgage rates and growing ancillary costs of homeownership are turning buyers away," says Berner.

"Many Florida homeowners unknowingly bought at the peak of the market following the intense run-up in prices of 2021 and 2022, and are now in danger of seeing their home value decrease as the market continues to soften," the economist adds.

Midwest markets seen as least at risk of falling prices

Meanwhile, the ATTOM analysis found that markets in the Midwest had the best fundamentals to avoid falling home prices.

Among the 50 counties deemed least risky in the analysis, nine were in Wisconsin, followed by five in New York and four each in Pennsylvania and Tennessee.

The least risky counties were Olmsted County, MN, Tippecanoe County, IN, Chittenden County, VT, Rock County, WI, and Medina County, OH.

These counties had middling affordability scores, yet some of the lowest unemployment and foreclosure rates in the country.

Counties with the biggest risk factors

Nationwide, 3% of homes were considered seriously underwater, meaning the combined estimated balances of loans secured by the properties were at least 25% more than the properties’ estimated market values.

In the fourth quarter of 2025, the five counties with the highest rates of underwater homes were all in Louisiana: Calcasieu Parish (17.3% of homes seriously underwater), Ouachita Parish (13.8%), Rapides Parish (13.8%), East Baton Rouge Parish (12.5%), and Caddo Parish (11.7%).

One out of every 1,274 homes nationwide was in foreclosure in the fourth quarter. Of the 50 counties with the worst foreclosure rates, 14 were in Florida, eight were in South Carolina, and five were in New Jersey.

The counties with the worst foreclosure rates were Dorchester County, SC (1 in every 294 homes in foreclosure), Baltimore City, MD (1 in every 321), Pueblo County, CO (1 in every 329), Charlotte County, FL (1 in every 348), and Osceola County, FL (1 in every 360).

The national unemployment rate was 4.5% in November, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics. Among the 50 counties with the highest unemployment rates, 15 were in California, 13 were in Florida, and three were in New Jersey.

The counties with the highest unemployment rates were Imperial County, CA (20.1%), Yuma County, AZ (13.4%), Tulare County, CA (10%), Merced County, CA (9%), and Sumter County, FL (8.9%).